Classroom
How a long shot is priced — on Polymarket, Kalshi, DraftKings, FanDuel, crypto, and futures. Tap the red markers.
Tap a number
Infographic
How a long shot is priced. Tap a number.
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Type the number you’re looking at. The other two fill in.
DraftKings, FanDuel
ClashPicks 12x
Polymarket %
A 4.0x is not free money. The market is saying 1 in 4 (25%).
The six moves
1 Implied odds
Every price is a percent
Decimal 4.00 means the market is pricing a 25% chance (1 ÷ 4). American +300 is the same math. If you think it hits more often than that, you found an underdog with value. If you just like the story, you found a donation.
2 Long shots
A 12x is not free money
Long shots pay because they usually lose. A 12.00 price implies about an 8% chance before fees. You need that event to be more likely than the market says — not merely exciting. Underdogs are a study in patience, not a lottery ticket.
3 The vig
Books and pools take a slice
Sportsbooks build juice into both sides so the implied probabilities add up to more than 100%. Prediction pools take a fee or spread. Always convert the posted price back to a percent, then ask what you are paying for the privilege of being wrong.
4 Underdog value
Value is a disagreement
An underdog is only a bet when your number is higher than the market’s. Favorites get overbet because they feel safe. Long shots get overbet because they feel cinematic. The edge, when it exists, is in the boring gap between those two feelings.
5 Bankroll
Never bet the bag
Size so a losing streak is survivable. One or two percent of a dedicated bankroll per opinion is a starting point, not a promise. If a loss would change how you sleep, the size is wrong — even if the price is right.
6 DYOR
This is a classroom, not a tip sheet
$UNDERDOG is an educational and entertainment project. Nothing here is financial advice or a promise of value or return. Markets can go to zero. You can lose the whole stake. 18+ only. Do your own work.
